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Saturday, May 18, 2013

BN's hollow victory because of FPTP system and gerrymandering... and naturally they are not complaining

Link

Don't let BN and EC hijack redelineation process

'According to former Perak MB Mohammad Nizar Jamaluddin (PAS), Pakatan polled 625,710 votes or 54.79 percent in Perak while BN only received 506,947 or 44.3 percent of ballots and yet it formed the state government with a three-seat majority.

This is a perfect example of the political gerrymandering used by UMNO to win elections and remain in power for 56 years. This is a blatant election fraud that the opposition and all Malaysians must wake up to.

If we continue to do nothing, UMNO will rule forever. And the re-delineation exercise so earnestly being forced through for the end of this year is exactly intended to do just that. To keep UMNO entrenched in its survival game.'

According to chartered accountant DATO RAMESH RAJARATNAM,

"The greatest disservice of this FPTP system was shown clearly in Malaysia in GE13 when 915,560 voters in East Malaysia sent 48 BN candidates to our Parliament, or simply put, the average vote cost per BN lawmaker was 19,074.

Because of the severe skewering (aka gerrymandering) of the constituency delineations, it cost an average of 84,053 votes to get one Pakatan Rakyat MP in East Malaysia, or 4.4 times more expensive.

On the national average, it cost BN 39,381 votes per MP as opposed to Pakatan's 63,191 votes. Quite frankly, Pakatan had to work 60 percent harder than the BN had to.

What this means is that unless the present delineation boundaries are redrawn to fix this severe misrepresentation of societal voice, any opposition will need about 60 percent of the national votes to be on par with BN come election time, forever."

In other words, "915,560 people, who are basically very removed from urban and national politicking, more or less sealed the fate of 11,054,577 voters or about 29 million people in Malaysia - thanks to the FPTP system."


More:



Someone did some number-crunching and came out with a theoretical situation where either coalition could in fact win with a simple majority in Parliament with just over 17% of the total votes! 

In theory, this could be done by any one side, winning with a simple majority of 1, starting from the smallest constituency Putrajaya (15,791; Turnout 14,465;) polling 7233 votes; then the next smallest constituency; and then the next, until 112 seats were obtained.

Update: 112 seats, from smallest constituency (Putrajaya), and their registered number of voters:

P125 15791
P207 17771
P222 18845
P206 19215
P203 19303
P210 19433
P200 19839
P216 21686
P209 22522
P221 24278
P166 24474
P183 24688
P187 24748
P181 25304
P214 25461
P192 25771
P182 26194
P215 26195
P204 26322
P213 26477
P176 26628
P201 27360
P205 27562
P55 27950
P78 27980
P218 28315
P61 28518
P178 29177
P220 29385
P202 29789
P177 30097
P185 30199
P79 32324
P54 32725
P69 33503
P67 33540
P199 33713
P208 36550
P193 37017
P186 37058
P92 37318
P173 37490
P4 37536
P142 37714
P157 37999
P197 38158
P86 38436
P175 38771
P179 39053
P155 39694
P184 39772
P75 39924
P151 40143
P32 40176
P189 41549
P153 41588
P156 41894
P7 41960
P1 41974
P168 42197
P95 42333
P93 42837
P148 42913
P87 43003
P141 43066
P30 43224
P198 43344
P180 43691
P3 43876
P174 44323
P154 44497
P149 44816
P126 44937
P72 45485
P134 45952
P56 46577
P13 46786
P143 46793
P191 46793
P140 47009
P167 47249
P129 47671
P84 48067
P146 48208
P170 48276
P68 49205
P164 49633
P53 49641
P194 49750
P172 50516
P90 50997
P2 51207
P57 51422
P169 51467
P49 51487
P73 51498
P190 51538
P62 51596
P188 51662
P41 51743
P165 51875
P5 52383
P23 52903
P195 53336
P171 53374
P91 53596
P42 54042
P80 54214
P58 54792
P119 55282
P120 55721
P83 56280
112 seats 4409939


50.1% of 4,409,939 = 2,209,379, which is 16.65% of 13,268,002 (total registered number of voters).
This is based on 100% turnout, but I believe, if based on average turnout rate, the percentage remains the same. After all, this is only in theory, to show how ridiculous a disproportional representation could be.

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