How safe is BN's Fixed Deposits?

Just like our money put in Fixed Deposits with banks, whether we are able to claim back the money on maturity will depend on how safe are the banks. The recent financial crisis has shown the vulnerability of even giant banks which seemed unthinkable before. So BN's so-called Fixed Deposits in Sabah and Sarawak are only as safe as the actual support of the electorates. Will they continue to give their undivided support to BN? What would they think of Najib's unity government which essentially concerns Malay and Islamic unity more than national unity. Can BN have both or will one give way to the other?

Raja Petra's recent post reveals a clearer picture of what is at stake and in store for the 13th General Election:

Malaysia-Today.net - Why BN will forever remain in power, unless it loses control of East Malaysia (excerpts):

I would even dare bet that Pakatan Rakyat has a good chance of winning 95 seats against Barisan Nasional’s 71. This means Barisan Nasional needs to win at least 50 seats from Sabah and Sarawak to form the federal government with a minimum of 121 seats. That would give Barisan Nasional a nine-seat margin over the 112 required to form the federal government.

THE CORRIDORS OF POWER
Raja Petra Kamarudin
Umno Youth Must Ensure Sabah Remain BN's "Fixed Deposit" – Salleh

When Sabah and Sarawak teamed up with Malaya and Singapore to form Malaysia (yes, that’s right, Sabah and Sarawak did not JOIN Malaysia) it was with certain terms and conditions attached. Some may have heard of the 20-point agreement but not many may have actually read it. I suppose the same goes for the Merdeka agreement prior to independence in August 1957 or the ‘Social Contract’ that binds the very delicate fabric of Malaysian society.

The 20-Point Agreement is another that many Malaysians can liberally quote but very few have actually read what it says. Even the police and Peninsular Malaysia politicians do not understand it. For example, if a Sabah politician were to say that the state should pull out of Malaysia and become the Independent Republic of Sabah, the federal leaders and the police would scream treason and rush over to Kota Kinabalu to arrest that Sabah politician under the Internal Security Act.

Is it treason? Or is it when Sabah and Sarawak teamed up with Malaya to form Malaysia it had been agreed that these two East Malaysian states could later leave the Federation of Malaysia if they find it untenable, but it must be done through a certain manner -- like holding a Referendum first and successfully getting the minimum number of votes required?

No, it is not treason. It is provided for in the agreement when Sabah and Sarawak first sat down to discuss the possibility of forming a new country called Malaysia. The only thing is it must be done according to the method agreed upon. The Chief Minister can’t wake up one morning and just announce that Sabah is no longer part of Malaysia and is now an independent republic.

Why are Sabah and Sarawak so important to Malaysia, other than the fact they have plenty of oil and other natural resources which we can plunder? Well, Sabah and Sarawak must at all times hold 25% of the total number of parliament seats. Currently, out of 222 parliament seats, East Malaysia has 56 -- that is 31 from Sarawak and 25 from Sabah.

For all intents and purposes, Sabah and Sarawak hold the key to federal power and are the ‘Kingmakers’. Ever wonder why Barisan Nasional politicians regard Sabah and Sarawak as the ruling coalition’s ‘fixed deposit’? They are not ashamed of this and make no apologies for it. In fact, they brazenly say so openly.

In the last general election on 8 March 2008, the opposition -- meaning DAP here -- won just one parliament seat in Sabah and another in Sarawak. Barisan Nasional retained 54 seats in both states.

Nationwide, Barisan Nasional won 140 seats in total while the opposition won 82. But if we minus the 54 seats from East Malaysia, Barisan Nasional won only 86 seats against the opposition’s 80 (also if we minus the two DAP seats in Sabah and Sarawak). Now, however, since the Kuala Terengganu by-election, it is 85 Barisan Nasional versus 81 Pakatan Rakyat.

Can you see how crucial Sabah and Sarawak are to Barisan Nasional? In the next general election Barisan Nasional may win less seats than Pakatan Rakyat in Peninsular Malaysia. I would even dare bet that

Pakatan Rakyat has a good chance of winning 95 seats against Barisan Nasional’s 71. This means Barisan Nasional needs to win at least 50 seats from Sabah and Sarawak to form the federal government with a minimum of 121 seats. That would give Barisan Nasional a nine-seat margin over the 112 required to form the federal government.

Nine seats is not a very large margin. But if Pakatan Rakyat increases its seats in Peninsular Malaysia from 81 to 95, then Barisan Nasional will need Sabah and Sarawak even more than before. However, Barisan Nasional will need to win at least 50 of the 56 seats in East Malaysia. If it wins only 40 seats instead of 50, then Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Rakyat would be locked in an ‘hung parliament’ with 111 seats each.

Not very good for political stability is it?

Other relevant info gathered from MT:

2008 polls - interesting facts Mar 10, 08 (glaring effects of gerrymandering?)

“Barisan Nasional only gained about 51 percent of the popular vote from the 7.9 million ballots cast on Saturday.

However, it took 63 percent of the seats contested - or 140 of 222 seats in Parliament.

Interestingly, its peninsula-wide popular vote was only 49.79 percent, which effectively means that the opposition received the majority vote in this part of the country.

However, when converted to parliamentary seats, BN has 85 of the constituencies in the peninsula, while the opposition bagged 80.Almost 40 percent of the BN's seats are in Sabah and Sarawak - 55 out of 140.

In 2004, BN won about 64 percent of the popular vote nationwide and 92 percent of the 219 parliamentary seats on offer then.”
***
In Sabah, results of the last GE:

The BN won nearly all parliamentary and state seats, except for Kota Kinabalu (parliament) and Sri Tanjong (state).
The opposition gathered 36 % or 187,800 of the votes.
PKR lost all, but obtained credible 137,500 votes or 26.35%; while DAP with less than 50,000 votes or about 10%, won the above-mentioned parliamentary and state seats and was close with Sandakan (P) and Likas (S).

BN votes vs. Opposition votes (where BN won despite obtaining less votes)
State seats:
1) Inanam: 5,979 vs. 7,157
2) Likas: 4,097 vs. 5,098
3) Luyang: 5,073 vs. 6,365
4) Kepayan: 6,162 vs. 7,758
5) Kuala Penyu: 4,416 vs. 4,998
6) Merotai: 3723 vs. 3,993
Parliamentary seat:
Sandakan (parliament) 8,297 vs. 11,050

Kota Kinabalu (parliament) 8,420 vs. 18,822
(KK seems typical of pro-opposition urban voters gerrymandered disproportionately so as to require more votes for a seat)

So, is BN getting worried this time round?