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MyCen News

Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Dr Rosli Khan: Johor: How they will vote


with a special detailed analysis on Gelang Patah where BN's Abdul Ghani Othman is pitted against DAP's Lim Kit Siang.

Excerpt:

"ANALYSIS Apr 29: The wind of change is blowing very strongly in Johor. It would not be a surprise if election results in Johor upset BN, as the coalition had always thought that Johor was a 'safe deposit' state.

It is true that in 2008, Johor voters generally did not swing much to PR, not as much when compared to Selangor, Perak, Penang and Kedah. ( * see below, my update from The Malay Mail figures)

But this coming GE13 is quite different for Johor. The situations at the ground level, at the moment, are changing very rapidly. PR rallies are not only well attended but they clearly demonstrate a partisan crowd, a clear support towards PR, a phenomenon that was not seen in 2008 or previous GEs. Perhaps, Johoreans love to take the lead in blowing the wind of change in this coming GE.

The moods and sentiments of the crowd in Johor, whether in Gelang Patah or Skudai, Batu Pahat or far away Pengerang, are very much consistent with the PR rally speakers. They are all shouting for ‘Ubah’ or ‘Ini Kalilah’.

Often, the spirited and eager crowd dictate the flow of the speech from the speakers, even jumping the gun, at times. Gone is their passive behaviour. The crowd in Johor are very vocal but firmly supportive and participative.

And they are not small in numbers either. The mixed crowd of Malays, Chinese and Indians seem very comfortable sitting or standing next to each other, listening to a mixed bag of PR politicians.

Obviously, former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad, and former Johor MBs Muhyiddin Yassin and Abdul Ghani Othman have not been to any of these rallies. Otherwise, they would not have uttered those words and statements about racial frictions or possible riots between Chinese and Malays. "


"As an illustration on the approach and methodology adopted here, the seat of Gelang Patah is used and provided with all the details. There were a total of 78,676 voters in Gelang Patah in 2008.

The results of 2008 showed that BN won this seat by a majority of 8,851. But for this coming GE, there are 28,188 new voters giving a new total of 106,864 voters in this parliamentary constituency.

If it is assumed that the voters turn out for the new voters group is on the slightly higher side of the national average, which is about 75 per cent, then the additional number that would vote on 5th May would be about 22,550. Given that majority of the new voters would vote for PR, some estimates say about 70 per cent, while others claimed to be much higher (almost 80%), a ratio of new voters for each seat was calculated. However, a lower figure of 70% is adopted in here.

Therefore, out of the 22,550 new voters that would turn up to vote in Gelang Patah, the share for PR and BN (at 70:30 ratios) would be 16,912 and 6,765 respectively. This is indeed quite generous to PR but very consistent with the participating crowd commonly found at PR rallies almost throughout Johor.

Given that we assumed the 2008 voting pattern has not changed except in this particular case, a maximum 10% swing towards PR is allowed for in the calculation. Again, this assumption is due to the high profile of PR’s candidate, the response of the voters attending the rallies and on spot surveys and discussions.

In the case of Gelang Patah, BN would therefore obtain 30,370 (derived from 33,630 in 2008 minus 3,360, which represents 10% swing to PR), but plus 6,765 new voters, giving a grand total of 37,135 votes.

For PR, they are expected to obtain 28,139 (derived from 24,779 votes in 2008 plus a 10% swing votes of 3,360). Together with the new voters of 16,912, PR final tally would be about 45,000 votes. This means that for the seat of Gelang Patah, Sdr. Lim Kit Siang, will win with a majority of about 7,900 votes. This is the calculated prediction."

More:
http://en.harakahdaily.net/index.php/headline/7129-johor-how-they-will-vote.html

* Figures taken from The Malay Mail, April 30, 'Glimpse into the Past':

Selangor: Pakatan % increased from 37.7% (2004) to 50.6% (2008);
Penang: Pakatan % increased from 35.8% (2004) to 61.4% (2008);
Perak: Pakatan % increased from 37.8% (2004) to 62.8% (2008);
Kedah: Pakatan % increased from 40.7% (2004) to 56.2% (2008);
Johor: Pakatan  % increased from 22.5% (2004) to ?       (2008?);
(Believe it or not, this is the only state without 2008 %!)


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