Who has the most to lose in the Kuala Terengganu by-election?

Wong Chin Huat's take in The Nut Graph (excerpts):

The BN's non-Malay saviours

In the Malay heartland areas, the non-Malay population (averaging at 10%), whose support for the BN remained as high as between 60% and 80%, surely helped to save the BN in a number of marginal seats. Kuala Terengganu, with an estimated 65% Chinese Malaysian support for the BN, was a case in point.

Why? One reason might be that non-Malay Malaysians living in Malay heartland areas did not realise how pivotal their votes would be. They therefore decided to vote for whom they thought the majority would, to avoid punishment by the expected winner. In other words, if the opposition votes were largely protest votes, sizable votes for the BN were arguably also votes of fear rather than of love. They could not see the possibility of having another federal government.

That explains the unprecedentedly warm reception now of Pakatan Rakyat leaders, especially Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, the menteris besar of Selangor and Perak, and the Penang chief minister, in the Chinese settlement in Kuala Terengganu. If you like, this could be the time-lagged, Ah-Chong-come-lately residual shock of the March 2008 political tsunami.

Let's say Umno's parliamentary dominance dwindles to only 55 seats in the peninsula — 10 seats down from its current total — and its non-Malay peninsula partners are completely wiped out. Can Umno count on its East Malaysian allies to fill the maximum 57 seats there to make up a simple majority of 112 in Parliament?

No. Therefore Umno needs the MCA, MIC, and Gerakan more than they need Umno, for Umno has everything to lose.

Umno needs to treat its non-Malay partners fairly to sustain their raison d'etre now that DAP has effectively established itself as an equal partner in the Pakatan Rakyat, with veto power on issues like hudud.

Only a defeat of Umno, especially due to a disastrous loss of non-Malay votes, will get the message through to Umno.

If I were a leader of the MCA, Gerakan, MIC, or PPP, I would campaign hard for one outcome but pray harder for the opposite.

Wong Chin Huat believes that voters are the bosses of politicians. They must cast their ballots to indicate their preference — even if they dislike all the candidates.