Who will be our next PM in March 2009?

Many of us take for granted that Najib will take over from Pak Lah. Yet Dr. Mahathir is worried that Pak Lah will stay on. Why?

In an article in Malaysia Today: No such thing as a sure thing Pink Panther seems to give an impression that our political situation is still very fluid, which does not discount the possibility of a third force coming into being. (Excerpts):

Raja Petra never dreamt how important his trials were going to be in deciding who would become the Prime Minister of Malaysia come March 2009. Everyone assumed that Najib would automatically be taking over from Abdullah at the ‘agreed’ time. But it appears like nothing has really been agreed yet. And this is troubling Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad as well who is banking on Najib taking over in March 2009 as planned.

Mahathir realises that you need not be the Umno President to become Prime Minister. Tun Abdul Razak Hussein became Prime Minister without becoming the Umno President, till much later. Mahathir himself stayed on as Prime Minister in 1988 even though be had no party (when Umno closed down) and was an independent Member of Parliament (calun bebas) while Ling Liong Sik was the Barisan Nasional Chairman at that time. In fact, Ghafar Baba became Deputy Prime Minister in 1986 without ever becoming an Umno (Lama) member until Umno Baru was formed in 1988.

Yes, who says you must first become the Umno President or the Barisan Nasional Chairman to become Prime Minister of Malaysia. All the Constitution says is that you must be a Member of Parliament whom, in the opinion of the Agong, commands the confidence of the majority of the Members of the House -- in other words, the 222 Members of Parliament.

Let’s say Anwar Ibrahim has the confidence of the 82 Pakatan Rakyat Members of Parliament. This leaves another 140 who are not with Anwar. Then, say, Abdullah has half the 140 with him, meaning 70. This leaves another 70. Let’s also say 20 abstain. This leaves 50. And, say, these 50 are with Najib.

In this case, Anwar Ibrahim has the confidence of the majority because he has 82, Abdullah has only 70, Najib 50, while 20 are ‘sitting on the fence’ and are not supporting any side.

It must be noted that Umno has only 66 Members of Parliament in Peninsular Malaysia. Even if the 13 Umno Sabah Members of Parliament stay united that would come to only 79. Pakatan Rakyat still has more at 82. Abdullah is said to control at least 20 Umno Members of Parliament. So Najib will be reduced to 59 against Pakatan Rakyat’s 82. The question would be: will Abdullah’s 20 remain neutral or will they swing to Pakatan Rakyat to give it 102? Either way, with only 59 Umno Members of Parliament, Najib would be far short and would need the other component members of Barisan Nasional to take the chair as Prime Minister.

MCA (15), MIC (3) and Gerakan (2) total another 20. These three parties plus PPP (which has no Parliamentarians) are totally pissed with Umno. They may not throw their lot behind Pakatan Rakyat but they would certainly stay neutral and become the ‘third force’ or ‘independents’. Though Pakatan Rakyat may not benefit from MCA’s, MIC’s and Gerakan’s 20 seats, neither would Umno, or rather Najib.

Najib would need the 30 non-Umno Members of Parliament from Sarawak and the balance 11 from Sabah (totaling 41) to make up his majority. If they too decide to follow MCA, MIC, Gerakan and PPP and stay ‘neutral’, then Najib is sunk. His 59 against Pakatan Rakyat’s 82, Abdullah’s ‘neutral’ 20, and the MCA’s, MIC’s, Gerakan’s, Sabah’s and Sarawak’s ‘neutral’ 61, would mean that he does not have the confidence of the majority and the Agong just can’t appoint him as the new Prime Minister.

Yes, many are looking forward to the 30 Barisan Nasional Members of Parliament crossing over to Pakatan Rakyat to give it 112 seats in Parliament (111 of 222 is exactly 50% so it will be 50% plus one seat). But what if they don’t cross over? What if they just remain neutral or leave Barisan Nasional to create an ‘independent third force’? This too would be enough to deny Najib the Prime Ministership. And there is more than one reason for them to want to remain neutral or to leave Barisan Nasional to become a third force.

This is the dilemma facing Najib. And Mahathir is also greatly concerned. They both know that March 2009 is a long way away. And many things can happen from now till March 2009. The non-Umno component members of Barisan Nasional are reevaluating their relationship with Umno. It is no longer a matter of whether to abandon Umno, and in the process abandon Najib as well. Leaving Umno is almost a foregone conclusion. What they are undecided about is whether they should leave Barisan Nasional to join Pakatan Rakyat or leave to become an independent third force. Both have its merits. In Pakatan Rakyat there is good and bad, as an independent third force there is also good and bad. That is what is preoccupying the minds of the non-Umno component members of Barisan Nasional. And the more mistakes Umno makes the more reason for them to proceed with the divorce. And Umno is making mistakes by the dozen these days.