Saturday, July 19, 2014

Chris Higgins: How spies cracked the Malaysia Airlines MH17 missile mystery

Excerpt:

'The US Air Force's Defense Support Program (DSP) operates a web of satellites positioned around the Earth that act as an early warning system for weapons launches, including intercontinental ballistic missiles and spacecraft. Using infrared cameras, they are capable of detecting even smaller heat signatures -- such as launch blasts and booster plumes -- proving their usefulness in the first Iraq invasion, detecting the launches of Scud missiles and providing evacuation warnings to civilian and military targets alike. These satellites form part of the larger field of Measurements and Signals Intelligence service (MASINT) operated by many national military and spy agencies, including the US Department of Defence.

Detecting the launch of a missile is as simple as watching for a white spot on an aerial shot, then tracking the missile's trajectory back to its launchpad. This, in theory, would make it easy to discover the weapon used. However, infra-red sensors are not the same as the high-resolution cameras that provide us with a detailed view of our own home on Google Earth, and without additional surveillance satellites trained on the area at the right time, that information would be lost. That is, without some lateral thinking, a practice the intelligence industry excels in.'

'The cruising altitude of MH17 was last recorded at 33,000ft (10,000m). Most man-portable air defence (or MANPAD) systems have an engagement range of around 20,000ft (6,000m), ruling out a small, one-man launch and a whole litany of "dumbfire" rockets. Alternatives are narrowed down to smarter, radar-guided missiles or an air-to-air engagement. Since flight radar picked up no combat jets in the area, the only remaining theory is a medium-to-long-range SAM with radar guidance. This allows MASINT analysts to narrow their searches based on how these systems work.'

'Before a missile is launched, a strong radar beacon would be used to acquire the target. After a "lock on", the payload is sent on a rough trajectory to cross the path of the target. But during flight, a radar on the missile itself would need to begin transmitting in order to reacquire the target and adjust flight course. These "pulses" can be specific to certain models of missile, and certain missiles are specific to launch vehicles. By detecting the radar signature of the missile, MASINT can compare it to known frequencies, as well as other variables -- such as speed of the missile -- and identify the weapon.'

'In the case of MH17, this appears to have been a Soviet-made BUK-M2. The BUK launches missiles that travel at speeds of up to 3 mach (1,000 metres per second)*, easily capable of catching a commercial passenger jet travelling at 800 kilometres per hour. The BUK is used extensively on both sides of the border, and were responsible for the downing of 4 aircraft during the 2008 conflict in South Ossetia, Georgia.'

http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2014-07/18/mh17-missile-detection/viewgallery/336884

(* 3,600 kilometres per hour, according to my amateurish calculation)

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